martedì 21 giugno 2016

ANALYSIS & FORECASTING

Method And Opportunities


Premise


Temptation is always that one that comes from winning, soothing and reassuring images; the suggestion, instead is that one build by the web gurus, whose words determine only successful trails delimitated by olympic slogans and golden advices, as if what happens around us, who are freelancers, fathers, lovers, adventurers and who knows what else, didn’t suffer the weight of discomfort, frustration or defeat. Does promote oneself, that is to offer own expertise to the market, then means denying life, forgetting road, neglecting pains, fears and worries of the common man? Neither in the archaic myths or in the literature we find men who are strangers to pain, and yet, today, marketing is solely composed of impeccable and invulnerable figures. Didn’t Achilles, the indomitable king of the Myrmidons, suffer the detachment from Briseis or from beloved cousin Patroclus? Didn’t Joshua ben-Joseph, the Christ, not one of the many, at the Gethsemane, ask Father to ward off the bitter cup? Didn’t Alexander the Great, the biggest among the conquerors, die in his early thirties now afflicted and isolated, despite the power? And we could speak about the Napoleon’s failure during the passage of Borodino or famously Julius Caesar’s fate, up to make an endless sequence rise. Did human affairs by change undermine the identity of these characters, who, like archetypes, are part of the collective unconscious? 

Which is the meaning of such a premise, in an index book where we steadily speak about geopolitics, intelligence, finance et similia? The answer is in my intentions: I, as an analyst, today, want to promote myself and I want to do it, as well as with a clear and well-defined method, through scraps of reality and on the basis of the human affairs that have characterized my scientific instruction and existential curriculum. If, from the degree in philosophy, I have gotten to economic, financial and sociopolitical forecasts, there must be a story and the facts. The man is represented by the works and operates between the facts. The rest is ‘packaging’. I categorically refuse to write or report: ‘How to do this or that’, '10 Tips on ', ‘Hurry up to contact me' and similar nonsense!

A caustic note: the analysis of SWOT plane of a company is the acronym of Strengtghs Weakness Opportunities Threats and not, for example, of Soul Wonder Orgasm Tenderness.

The Method


There is a place where a careful observer who is willing to explore is able to make predictions about human behavior: it is indefinable, uncontainable, incommensurable. Every man, even unknowingly, passes through it, leaving traces of himself, traces that turn themselves into documents of identity: joys and sorrows, intentions and beliefs, doubts and certainties, hope and skepticism. Each of these elements contains an a story and some signs that human passage tells. At first, we deal with a residue that settles to the ground in order to generate high and dense layers of amorphous and alive matter. The explorer who benefited from the privilege of contemplation, nevertheless, make a face, a form, a plot arise. The dimension within which we are interpreting the mysteries that surround us is that one of the language, unique structure of existence that denounces the speaker himself revealing what usually means hiding or you tend to mystify and obscure.

To analyze speech acts means to have seen what it has been, forecasting what will be, inhabiting the world with clear perspicuity and foresight, it means ‘to know’. Detractors and objectors could easily reject this hypothesis because of quackery or could conjecture about conceited and fearless barkers, but science, experience and laboratory are unshakeable. 


Our language, both that written one and that spoken one, is composed of parameters that repeat in a punctual and systemic way; not by chance, it is considered recursive. By leaving from finite means, all of us are able to produce an infinity and recursive series of combinations, that structure themselves according to a particular frequency of use. Practically, the expressive modalities of each of us are based on a certain common heritage, but they differ one another both for the style and the events experienced or partially tested by the speaker. We don’t get God’s speech and there isn’t claiming to proclaim the truth, but we have the courage investigating, discovering and knowing.

In the economic and financial scope and in that socio-politic one, the most fruitful among the labor camps is that one of media, whose writing is obsessively reworked through rhetorical formulas and reps that allow that analyst to take over the hidden and deep structures. The more the informant weary to cover real data, the easier it is ‘to remove’ the protection and misinformation schemes, although this implies a comparative and daily examination of the main 'media'.  


An example, in this seat, can be useful supplying reader with reply. Some months ago, when the value of a barrel of oil got off below $ 30, I made a rise prediction that attracted above me only dispute and skepticism by the detractors and bearish. By getting results forecast, I afford to make mention of this, but without show nor outcry. I afforded, with equal humility, in the last days, to supply a few Investment indicators: dangerousness of some European funds, devaluation of the euro and the strengthening of the dollar, new course of the dollar and pound, growth of some unsuspecting inner Asian countries, Netherland’s financial dangerousness and other factors that in this seat can be deepened.  Draghi’s maneuver about American corporate bond, that is unnoticed, has been ingenious and typical or of a clairvoyant or of a man who knows does not want to go down in history tragically. Someone could object by interrogating me: - If you declare these skills, why don’t you invest? The answer is easy and trivial: I cannot do it because I haven’t got the enough capital and I don’t intend to be an acrobat of the forex, carny or fortune teller or palmist from overwork who lives bluff giving lessons on the right and left.


Otherwise: do we want to know if our partner betray us? Do we want to understand why our partner has lately assumed an abnormal attitude? Do we want to learn more about our sons’ acquaintances or about their discomforts? Do we want to inquire about our employee’s fidelity? Do we want foresee our customers’ behavior with reference to a product that we are introducing in the market? Do we want to realize an effective communication campaign? We have the right. 

It’s enough for us to have write models that are drawn up by the person whom we want to ‘know’: from easiest post of social network to e-mail: all that is ‘writing’, even associated with imagines, turns itself into annunciation and revelation. It’s evident also that it’s necessary to supply the analyst with a framework document that is sufficiently large so that he should draw a comparative study and to assess the critical steps.

Attention!

It doesn’t deal with private investigation; and also the analyst makes no intrusion into the private life of the person appointed, neither in the social plane nor in that informatics one.

The inquiry takes place entirely by the analysis of the language and, consequently, of protocols of linguistic forecasting. Finding will be therefore a hypothesis based on the recursion and characterized by the approximation, it will not be based on ‘evidence’ that can be touched and watched: finding the evidence is the task of the judicial authorities or those who have authorization, in the cases in which they are necessary. The analyst writes an advisory report, gives a scientific opinion. 


In order to a correct rating, it’s necessary for us to have a set of documents that, well as to sample, cover at least the last two or three years of life. Nevertheless, we specify even on a single document you can get a reply, although this can be limiting. Has someone just entertained in conversation by chat whit a woman whom he desires ardently and does he want to know more? The conversation is a very text: it’s enough for you to put in analysis.

The Story


I had discovered my big passion since I was a teenager. Already among the sixteen e seventeen years, I devote my time to the study of the language, by being fascinated and, maybe, even hexed by the words and by their combination. Previously, I have had a teacher of excellence, my grandfather, who, as a Jesuit for training, knew Latin, Greek, English, French and German and he felt pleasure in the preparation of the scrolls in which he translates from one language to other one his thinking. I watched him and I wanted to know how to do at any cost. Unfortunately, I stopped to Latin, Greek and English. A bit of the Arab came out thanks to travel in the Maghreb. I wasted my first year of university by enrolling to the course of law degree, but because in that time I wasn’t motivated in in this sense. So, I passed to Philosophy by concluding my studies full blown: praise, mention and publication of the thesis were useful pride for 48 hours. Then, I found myself unemployed and wandering, busy in a thousand works of anonymous and lashing existence: porter, waiter, farm laborer, street vendor of books and insurance policies. As they say, all this serves to gain experience, but also serves to break the bones and remove enthusiasm. The rhetoric about the nobility of certain works, in general, is made by those who has never dirtied their hands and are all too well. Over the years, I found myself well on a boat to be a fisherman. I landed to university only after a myriad of exhausting attempts and because I decided to deal with hard-nosed the headmaster in his office directly, bypassing the bureaucracy and pointing out I had already published six or seven books, a good amount of scientific articles, while other characters had a curriculum similar to the note of chocolates. I won the competition. Six or seven years later, I was already out to start a new adventure, that of business consulting. I found myself along the streets of the world, from Casablanca, where I took a rented house, in Moscow, from Tunis to Malmö and so on, the city where I went to manage contracts and business relationships. Today, I am an independent analyst, a freelancer. In all these years, between an editorial experience and a business trip, I always wondered if there was an effective method of deconstructing the written and spoken language in order to rebuild it according to the sense and meaning hidden, especially according to those senses and those meanings preceding the genesis of a title of Sole 24 Ore or Milano Finanza or the choice of the Fed or the ECB to announce interest rate rises and drops. And I've done nothing but work of analysis and forecasts; which does not make me immune from errors nor does not exempt me from paying of F24 or my debts with banks and financial.

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