martedì 3 maggio 2016


The Observation

The new course of the dollar will make ECB live with regret of interbank borrowing choice. Everything that is happening around us make us think the relationship among the currencies will change radically. The indicators seem to be clear, even if they are hidden by international diplomacy. According to the Bank for International Settlements, American banks have 757 billion dollars in derivative contracts and 650 billion in bonds of European banks.

In the same time, China was the only country able to acquire and handle the US debt after the 2008 financial collapse. England and France maintain an ambiguous position within the European community; Germany had requested the repatriation of its gold reserves for a long time; Netherlands obstructs the position of Ukraine in order to counter the Russian aims, although Russia has already strengthened its position in the field of oil and gas.

Saudi Arabia’s role could seem strange in this phase: it shows a certain and particular rigidity on the ‘freezing’ of oil production, by favoring the US; which makes us believe the tension between the two countries is apparent and strategic. As a matter of fact, Saudi Arabia keeps on acting without contrast in Yemen. Saudi Arabia was to have given a clearer answer during the Doha summit; it by now prefers to feign. It seems to be driven by US Treasury. Maybe, Saudi Arabia wish it dominated oil markets. However, up to now, Americans were able to impose oil shale: then, Saudi Arabia is a cash cow for global information. Is Yemen going to become a mystery? 14 million people are actually lack of food and water and 10 million children are abandoned. No one talks about what Saudi Arabia is doing, given that this activity could be defined like ‘crime’. We know that in the meantime the oil fields in Yemen were bombed.

Italy smelt Libya’s oil fields burning, so that it has had to canvass in favor of NATO and Sarraj, as if he was the ideal candidate. Practically, Italy is obliged to recite because of their economic and political weakness. Indeed, thanks to this servile attitude, Italy has got the contract for the works at Mosul’s dam. Perhaps, Italy would be better be silent on Regeni. It risks to make a fool. It would concentrate on oil and gas, instead of seeking diplomatic gimmicks.

We heard whistleblowers talk about balance between West and Middle East, but no one dares to talk suitably about Asian finance, while president Obama making theatrical experiments in Europe: Obama needn’t have made that speech about democracy value in Europe; the real objective is to counter Russia.

People deliver, for other routes, Iran is going to enter in the Natural Melted Gas market together with Norway. It was natural for Iran to defect to the Doha summit.

On the other side of the planet, in Brazil, the saddest case that we can admit in democracy is wearing out: the attack against Dilma Rousseff, that it has been preceded by the Lula da Silva’s Case. In other words, it deals with an attack against BRIC countries: no longer concealed. In conclusion of this premise, we can’t help thinking Syria is used as an arena for the moves to do in the Middle East and Turkey is an ambiguous Atlantic tool.

Inside this circle news, the most suspect among the form of silence is linked with some countries of south and south east of Asia. Whistleblowers got financial data moved on China or Russia; we'd need to look at Malaysia, Philippines and some sovereign wealth funds.

The critical Hypothesis

It seems that the United States wants to regain the primacy of oil, putting out of action the OPEC, and, above all, they want to recover the huge amount of dollars in circulation. Then, Most likely, the dollar could soon have a new course because this would be the only way to combat the strength of the euro, Russia and China. In regard to the excessive amount of dollars in circulation recorded by the US authorities, to the amount of US debt (quadrillion) towards the Bretton Woods institutions and to the lack of tangible gold, gold that lacks in historical storages, the Federal Reserve and the United States' Treasury, in agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, could decided to implement a total maneuver of transformation of global currency; which would result in an attack on the euro, in a radical change in the world monetary aggregate - in particular: M1 - and a tactic of control of the two main commodities: gold and oil. I believe US could surprise the world with a kind of golden internal standard, producing a new banknote and withdrawing the current one. In the first period, the Federal Reserve and the United States' Treasury could avoid causing an increase or a decrease in the amount of dollars in circulation, but they could simply introduce a new parallel banknote. This mechanism wouldn’t arouse much concern in the markets because it would seem the phase of a normal cycle of expansion in liquidity. In this way, operators would think consequently to an increase in inflation, to the hypothesis of a regular quantitative easing and to the possibility of rising interest rates according to standard criteria. The European Community, at that point, would feel more calm and would believe in a strengthening of the euro and the relationship between euro and dollar. To do this, the US government could release guarantee certificates on gold ad interim, exchanging all fractional currency with the currency in gold because gold would constitute the value and purchasing power. It is evident that gold could be reaches a value larger than $ 2,000 per troy ounce. The old currency could be totally withdrawn and could be replaced by new banknotes.

The collapse of the euro would be the worst of the consequences. Of course, the WTI would experience a surge that would force OPEC to cut production. The Brent growth would be lower, but it would still be significant. It would be reasonable therefore to expect a considerable rise in the oil phase.

The strongest of the doubts is currently made up of the role of Asian Infrastructure Bank, that could became and important commercial and financial US partner, by virtue of some important sovereign funds of which it is a participant. 

The final Note

Some countries in the Middle East are running out of water. In particular, water scarcity has already hit the Yemen and Saudi Arabia, but, while Yemen tragically suffering the situation, Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia has obtained the concession of the Arizona desert wells. Water crisis was already noted 15 years ago. According to Nestlé’s report, “one-third of the world’s population will be affected by fresh water scarcity by 2025”. The crisis could become catastrophic by 2050 for Middle East, northern India, northern China, and the western United States. Beyond the causes, of which experts have been already talking about for some time, the political and commercial relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, which the press hasn’t documented sufficiently, shows how the interpretation aren’t those offered by the media. 

3 commenti:

  1. You are confusing the Network of Global Corporate Control reported by Battiston, Vitality and Glattfelder for the Bretton Woods institutuins, a big mistake, and you are ignoring the Global Debt Facility containing the world's monetary gold reserves that is administered by the Board of Governors of the Bretton Woods institutions, and you are ignorant about the decision at the spring meetings to exchange Federal Reserve Notes and other fractional reserve fiat currencies for treasury currencies and offset country debt against Treaty of Versailles bonds. Why?

    1. Furthermore, dear Karen, what matters, most of all, in my writing is the premise entitled "The Observation". Do you want deny the incidence of these phenomena? The uncertain relatioship US and China; the ambiguity of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and United States; all the attempts to counter Russia and hits oil and gas production; Netherlands' choiche stopping Ukraina's progress. American banks possess trillion in contracts and derivatives of European banks: a change of currency would bring the United States to currency primacy. I respect your point of view because you are one of the most influential figures in the global economy, and I do not count much, but I invite you to accept that these reflections are only hypotheses. I can be wrong, but logic dictates that.

  2. Dear Karen, I'm an independent analyst and I do not have economic resources for research. I had to stop my impressions. I understand your reference, but I think it is possible such an attitude of the Federal Reserve. The amount of dollars in 'circulation' justifies this. Unfortunately, I do not have much data you have. In my opinion, very soon the US Treasury will be forced to strengthen the dollar by using a different standard. It is natural that the euro will suffer the backlash.